Large scale violent conflicts occur with great frequency in poor and slowly growing countries. While there is some disagreement about the causes of conflict, most studies point to high risks associated with poverty, weak state structures, poor governance, natural resource dependence and horizontal inequality (inequality between politically relevant groups such as regional groups or ethnic groups). What is not disputed is that conflicts impose enormous hardship.

The success of the MDG project will depend in large part on its success in countries in conflict or at-risk of conflict. These states produce at least three types of problem for the MDG project. First there is the difficulty of functioning in weak or predatory states: how can projects to achieve the goals be implemented efficiently in contexts in which political actors aim to divert funds. This is a problem of effectiveness. Next there is a problem that effort to achieve the goals will not only be ineffective, but might have adverse effects. This is a problem of unintended consequences, it has received much attention recently with respect to the relationship between humanitarian aid and conflict. Finally there is the challenge to respond directly to conflict because of its independent adverse effects on the MDGs. This is a problem of engagement.

Sub-Saharan Africa is a continent where absolute poverty continues to grow, where conflicts have killed millions of people over the past decade.

MDG Review is currently shaping up a platform that will dovetail the need to deal with the above mentioned setbacks, through reporting on the causes and effects to World Leaders, and at the same time looking at how the promotion of sustainable development through investment in all sectors can be part of the solution.

A considerable financing gap appears to persist with respect not only to MDG-related activities, but also to investments that will be beneficial for growth and structural change beyond the MDGs, let alone for tackling new challenges for developing countries as a result of climate change. It is estimated that for a realistic chance of meeting the MDGs, the level of annual ODA would need to be $50–$60 billion higher than current disbursements, to complement efforts by developing countries to finance additional investment from domestic sources.

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